Spot Natural Gas Prices: A Theoretical Party to Party Bargaining Framework

Interim Global Oil and Gas Price Benchmarks and the Feasibility of a Party to Party Bargaining Model

This study further develops a party to party gas price bargaining model (expanded in a research paper by Okugu, 2002) by using proxies of prices of these replacement fuels in OPEC spot oil prices and Henry Hub (HH) spot gas prices. The study finds a significant relationship between the variables. When optimally lagged data are analysed in a vector autoregressive model, a significant longer-term...

Relying Party Credentials Framework

We present architecture for e-business applications that receive requests from a party over the Net, to allow the applications to make decisions relying on the credentials of the requesting party. Relying party applications will be provided with uniform interface to the credentials of the requesting party. This will allow use of simple, widely available credentials as well as more advanced cred...

Spot the difference: Political party platforms compared

Reputation and Repeated Bargaining with a Third Party∗

We study repeated bargaining between a privately informed long-run player and a sequence of short-run players. Should the players fail to reach an agreement, an unbiased yet imperfect third party is called upon to make a decision. In contrast to standard reputation models, the benefit from reputation is low. We construct a Markov perfect equilibrium and characterize its reputation building dyna...

Forecasting commodity prices by classification methods: The cases of crude oil and natural gas spot prices

In this article, we forecast crude oil and natural gas spot prices at a daily frequency based on two classification techniques: artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM). As a benchmark, we utilize an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) specification. We evaluate outof-sample forecast based on encompassing tests and mean-squared prediction error (MSPE). We ...